Thursday, Dec, 22 2011 USD/CAD

I took a short on usd/cad because it was in line with the trend, and there were many signs of weakness that preceded the ND that I shorted. The UT was the first sign of weakness, and 2 bars later there was a massive shakeout that failed to produce a positive result. I like how the ND was in the buying tail of the shakeout showing that where there was once massive buying, there is now lack of it.
       Soon after entering the trade and putting a tight stop in I fell asleep (3am my time) and woke up with 55 pips in profit. If I were monitoring the trade I would have taken profits much earlier or been stopped out a break even. My reasoning for closing the trade was that there are signs of no supply because of the Asian session starting.

Risk: 15           Result: +56

Monday, Dec, 19, 2011 EUR/USD

I went short on eur/usd on a ND after effort to fall, but got out 2 bars after because of a test. I might re-enter after further weakness, but I don't like this tight range.
Result: +5

Monday, Dec, 12 2011 GBP/USD

I haven't had the patience to update this blog in a while, and I haven't been taking many trades lately either. I do however want to share this trade that I just closed out. The reason for taking the trade was that we are in a down trend with no result after effort to rise, and also at the time we just penetrated the lower support line  and rejected higher prices on an inside bar. That was my initial entry, but soon after closed out with a minor loss when strength came in. However the next bar was a nice outside bar that completed a 2bar reversal so I went short again. My reasoning for closing the trade was because of the ultra high volume coming in.

result -7 , +55       Risk: 15
timeframe: 15m

Monday, Sept, 26, 2011 GBP/USD

I took a short on gbp/usd after an UT, but was stopped out the next bar above the high. In my opinion the market was weak because there were several tests with no result, and the general trend was down. Also the fact that the SO produced no result is another sign of weakness.

Result:  -33

Friday, september, 23 2011 usd/chf

I went short on usd/chf  on an inside bar closing on the lows bellow support on increased volume. However the next bar was a countermanding shakeout so I decided to close the position with a small profit.  I'm really pissed at myself because I took another trade on eur/chf  impulsively without thinking and ended up with a loss.

Initial Risk: 50      Result: +9

Monday, Sept, 12 2011 EUR/USD

I took a short On EUR/USD because of a ND bar in a down trend, but I decided to not hold the position during the Asian session. I closed the position 2 bars later because selling pressure was diminishing.

Initial Risk: 70      Result: 30

 

I re-entered short after an UT but closed out an hour later because we were right on support. Now I am looking for further weakness on the 15m for another entry.

Initial Risk: 48    Result: 61

sunday Sept, 4, 2011, USD/CHF

I went short on USD/CHF because the trend was down, and there was ND followed by supply. I entered on the low of the high volume, narrow spread up bar. However I closed the position 2 bars later because it appears that demand is coming in.

I am also long on G/U at the moment. I will publish the results when I close the position, but I am planning on holding it for some time.

Initial Risk: 30      Result: +2

Tuesday, Aug, 30 2011 EUR/CHF

I went short on EUR/CHF because there was an UT in the background followed by no demand. I entered after an effort to fall through the trend line because there was strong bearish momentum. At one point I was up 70pips, but I closed out at break even. The trade was counter trend, however there was a nice divergence on RSI, and I was hoping for a reversal.

Initial Risk 60              Result: 0

Tuesday, Aug, 30 2011 USD/CHF

I went long after a test on USD/CHF  but closed out the position with a small loss because there was no effort to move up, and the test had failed. It appears that the market is being shaken out right now.
Initial Risk: 32        Result:  -11

I took  quite a big loss today when I took a trade on the new FXCM  USD index.  I never used this instrument before and didn't notice that I was WAY over leveraged when it moved against me only 10 points. I closed the position with a loss equivalent to 100 pips on E/U. It's a good thing I got out soon, otherwise I would have blown out most of my account by now.

monday, August, 22, 2011 EUR/CHF

I went short on EUR/CHF on the low of a test after a lot of weakness in the background. The test was on support, so i was expecting it to fail and see a breakout down, however the bar that I got in on turned out to be another test. I should have closed the position then. The market was weak in my opinion because there was no result to the upside after every shakeout, and effort to rise.
Result: -30

 

 

Monday, August 15, 2011 USD/CHF

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I just went short usd/chf
There is a lot of weakness on usd/chf, and as I predicted the news will be bad for USD. I'm trying something new on this trade, by combining RSI divergence with VSA principles. This trade is only experimental and I don't normally trade counter trend, this is somewhat trying to catch a falling knife. But the R/R is right so I'm going to dump 1/2 of my position at +160 and let the other half run until it reaches oversold with a stop above the UT, -130 pips. This way the only way I can loose is if price does not reach my first target. Something that never ceases to amaze me is how well S&R lines work sometimes. That dotted red line on the chart was drawn 2 weeks ago, it was an old area of support and also a 61.8% fib level..

I'm planning on dumping 1 position at around 0.7721 

Initial Risk:   91  &  129   Result: +28  +18

UPDATE: I closed the whole position because there didn't seem to be enough selling pressure to bring price down to my first target and we were in an uptrend, so the path of least resistance is up.

Thursday, Aug 4, 2011 AUD/USD

I went short on AUD/USD after an ETF into strong support. If the market was bullish you would expect to see buying immediately after instead of two narrow spread bars.  There were two stopping vol bars in the background which is strength, however the fact that they produced no result is a countermanding indication and shows weakness. When I was in profit 34 pips I moved my SL above support and just a little above where I entered. If I had moved my SL to break even I would have been stopped out, which brings me to an important point: THE MARKET DOES NOT CARE ABOUT YOUR MONEY MANAGEMENT RULES. As a trader it is important to manage your money correctly, however you must also take into consideration what the market is doing and put your SL's in relevant areas. I closed the trade because I saw strength coming in.

Initial risk: 27       Result: +36

tuesday, Aug, 2 2011 usd/chf

I went short on usd/chf after a ND bar in a down trend. My SL was set above the high of the previous bar. After a substantial move down I decided to close the position because there was NSP (no selling pressure) and I didn't want to keep  a position open during the Asian session, however when I closed the position something amazing happened. It was 17:59 EST when I pushed the close button, the price was at 0.7655. One second after I hit close the price dropped 50 pips, filled my order at 0.7613 (43 pips lower then I closed at), and then shot back up to 0.7643 all within one minute. What is even more strange is that the next 1 minute bar had almost 2x the vol.

Initial Risk: 35    Result: + 93

mon, july, 25, 2011 GBP/USD

I went long after a test in a rising market on a line of support with my stop just below the test. The next bar was a clear ND showing that there was no result from the test a sign of weakness, so I decided to close the position. 
Initial Risk: -18  Result: -10

MTM (pg.159) - "If the market drifts sideways and does not respond to the sign of strength, then we must assume the market is still showing residual weakness. A successful test Is a sign of strength that shows that selling (supply) has disappeared from the market"

MTM (pg. 35) - "Any  testing that does not respond immediatly with higher prices, can be considered an indication of weakness"

tuesday july, 26, 2011 usd/cad

Another loss today. Again stopped out to the pip on what I still think was a good trade.

Initial risk: 17 pips      outcome: -17 pips

tuesday july, 26, 2011 usd/chf

took a loss on usd/chf on a short. The market was shaken out right after I entered.
initial risk: -29  outcome: -29

mon, July, 25, 2011 usd/chf First journal entery

I took a successful short on usd/chf based on a 1h chart. The background was extremely weak and the trend was down. Price had gaped down through support over the weekend, and after the market opened there was completely no effort to push up. I took the entry right after an UT into the previous support, and i put my SL just above the high of the UT. The reason for closing the position was because of the potential selling climax that had formed.

Initial Risk - 29 pips     

outcome - + 46 pips