Tuesday, January, 31, 2012 EUR/USD short

I took a short on eur/usd based on a ND after a weak background. I like how the ND was in the body of the previous down bar that had rendered the shakeout previous to it, failed. The trade was counter-trend, but I was sensing a top and considered holding it for a few hundred pips with a possible target 0f 1.2700.  It appears that my analysis was spot on, however I decided to close out the trade at the bottom of the daily trend channel and wait for a re-entry, (which I will most likely not get).

        Another thing that is worth mentioning is. At the time of closing the trade there was a bad USD economic report (CB Consumer Confidence). This bad usd news had completely no positive effect on EU, even though it came out while price was at the the bottom of a daily trend channel and a confluence of a few other support levels. This just adds to the present bearishness, and for the record I'm calling a top.
Initial Risk: 28     Result: +50

Tuesday, Jan, 24 2012 gbp/usd

Took a counter trend short on GBP/USD which ended up in a loss. Although I don't  normally trade counter trend, everything lined up for this one so I decided to take it. From a vsa perspective there was plenty of weakness in both the immediate, and more distant background. Also an RSI bearish divergence which is a really powerful leading indicator, as well as an inclining H&S pattern (which is more bearish then normal H&S). On top of that there was a positive news release that resulted in a negative reaction, and appears to have been sold heavily into on the most recent bars.
       My stop was placed very safely above the high of a high volume upthrust, so I'm still scratching my head trying to figure out why this trade failed.
result:  -25

Edit: as of writing this it appears that the bar that took me out is an ut, so I just re-entered short.