Tuesday, January, 31, 2012 EUR/USD short

I took a short on eur/usd based on a ND after a weak background. I like how the ND was in the body of the previous down bar that had rendered the shakeout previous to it, failed. The trade was counter-trend, but I was sensing a top and considered holding it for a few hundred pips with a possible target 0f 1.2700.  It appears that my analysis was spot on, however I decided to close out the trade at the bottom of the daily trend channel and wait for a re-entry, (which I will most likely not get).

        Another thing that is worth mentioning is. At the time of closing the trade there was a bad USD economic report (CB Consumer Confidence). This bad usd news had completely no positive effect on EU, even though it came out while price was at the the bottom of a daily trend channel and a confluence of a few other support levels. This just adds to the present bearishness, and for the record I'm calling a top.
Initial Risk: 28     Result: +50

Tuesday, Jan, 24 2012 gbp/usd

Took a counter trend short on GBP/USD which ended up in a loss. Although I don't  normally trade counter trend, everything lined up for this one so I decided to take it. From a vsa perspective there was plenty of weakness in both the immediate, and more distant background. Also an RSI bearish divergence which is a really powerful leading indicator, as well as an inclining H&S pattern (which is more bearish then normal H&S). On top of that there was a positive news release that resulted in a negative reaction, and appears to have been sold heavily into on the most recent bars.
       My stop was placed very safely above the high of a high volume upthrust, so I'm still scratching my head trying to figure out why this trade failed.
result:  -25

Edit: as of writing this it appears that the bar that took me out is an ut, so I just re-entered short.

Thursday, Dec, 22 2011 USD/CAD

I took a short on usd/cad because it was in line with the trend, and there were many signs of weakness that preceded the ND that I shorted. The UT was the first sign of weakness, and 2 bars later there was a massive shakeout that failed to produce a positive result. I like how the ND was in the buying tail of the shakeout showing that where there was once massive buying, there is now lack of it.
       Soon after entering the trade and putting a tight stop in I fell asleep (3am my time) and woke up with 55 pips in profit. If I were monitoring the trade I would have taken profits much earlier or been stopped out a break even. My reasoning for closing the trade was that there are signs of no supply because of the Asian session starting.

Risk: 15           Result: +56

Monday, Dec, 19, 2011 EUR/USD

I went short on eur/usd on a ND after effort to fall, but got out 2 bars after because of a test. I might re-enter after further weakness, but I don't like this tight range.
Result: +5

Monday, Dec, 12 2011 GBP/USD

I haven't had the patience to update this blog in a while, and I haven't been taking many trades lately either. I do however want to share this trade that I just closed out. The reason for taking the trade was that we are in a down trend with no result after effort to rise, and also at the time we just penetrated the lower support line  and rejected higher prices on an inside bar. That was my initial entry, but soon after closed out with a minor loss when strength came in. However the next bar was a nice outside bar that completed a 2bar reversal so I went short again. My reasoning for closing the trade was because of the ultra high volume coming in.

result -7 , +55       Risk: 15
timeframe: 15m

Monday, Sept, 26, 2011 GBP/USD

I took a short on gbp/usd after an UT, but was stopped out the next bar above the high. In my opinion the market was weak because there were several tests with no result, and the general trend was down. Also the fact that the SO produced no result is another sign of weakness.

Result:  -33

Friday, september, 23 2011 usd/chf

I went short on usd/chf  on an inside bar closing on the lows bellow support on increased volume. However the next bar was a countermanding shakeout so I decided to close the position with a small profit.  I'm really pissed at myself because I took another trade on eur/chf  impulsively without thinking and ended up with a loss.

Initial Risk: 50      Result: +9